A novel serogenetic approach determines the community prevalence of celiac disease and informs improved diagnostic pathways

Background: Changing perspectives on the natural history of celiac disease (CD), new serology and genetic tests, and amended histological criteria for diagnosis cast doubt on past prevalence estimates for CD. We set out to establish a more accurate prevalence estimate for CD using a novel serogenetic approach.Methods: The human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ genotype was determined in 356 patients with 'biopsy-confirmed' CD, and in two age-stratified, randomly selected community cohorts of 1,390 women and 1,158 men. Sera were screened for CD-specific serology.Results: Only five 'biopsy-confirmed' patients with CD did not possess the susceptibility alleles HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2, and four of these were misdiagnoses. HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2 was present in 56% of all women and men in the community cohorts. Transglutaminase (TG)-2 IgA and composite TG2/deamidated gliadin peptide (DGP) IgA/IgG were abnormal in 4.6% and 5.6%, respectively, of the community women and 6.9% and 6.9%, respectively, of the community men, but in the screen-positive group, only 71% and 75%, respectively, of women and 65% and 63%, respectively, of men possessed HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2. Medical review was possible for 41% of seropositive women and 50% of seropositive men, and led to biopsy-confirmed CD in 10 women (0.7%) and 6 men (0.5%), but based on relative risk for HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2 in all TG2 IgA or TG2/DGP IgA/IgG screen-positive subjects, CD affected 1.3% or 1.9%, respectively, of females and 1.3% or 1.2%, respectively, of men. Serogenetic data from these community cohorts indicated that testing screen positives for HLA-DQ, or carrying out HLA-DQ and further serology, could have reduced unnecessary gastroscopies due to false-positive serology by at least 40% and by over 70%, respectively.Conclusions: Screening with TG2 IgA serology and requiring biopsy confirmation caused the community prevalence of CD to be substantially underestimated. Testing for HLA-DQ genes and confirmatory serology could reduce the numbers of unnecessary gastroscopies. © 2013 Anderson et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The clinical reasoning characteristics of diagnostic experts

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the clinical reasoning characteristics of diagnostic experts. A group of 21 experienced general practitioners were asked to complete the Diagnostic Thinking Inventory (DTI) and a set of 10 clinical reasoning problems (CRPs) to evaluate their clinical reasoning. Both the DTI and the CRPs were scored, and the CRP response patterns of each GP examined in terms of the number and type of errors contained in them. Analysis of these data showed that six GPs were able to reach the correct diagnosis using significantly less clinical information than their colleagues. These GPs also made significantly fewer interpretation errors but scored lower on both the DTI and the CRPs. Additionally, this analysis showed that more than 20% of misdiagnoses occurred despite no errors being made in the identification and interpretation of relevant clinical information. These results indicate that these six GPs diagnose efficiently, effectively and accurately using relatively few clinical data and can therefore be classified as diagnostic experts. They also indicate that a major cause of misdiagnoses is failure to properly integrate clinical data. We suggest that increased emphasis on this step in the reasoning process should prove beneficial to the development of clinical reasoning skill in undergraduate medical students.

Axial spondyloarthritis: A new disease entity, not necessarily early ankylosing spondylitis

New classification criteria for axial spondyloarthritis have been developed with the goal of increasing sensitivity of criteria for early inflammatory spondyloarthritis. However these criteria substantially increase heterogeneity of the resulting disease group, reducing their value in both research and clinical settings. Further research to establish criteria based on better knowledge of the natural history of non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis, its aetiopathogenesis and response to treatment is required. In the meantime the modified New York criteria for ankylosing spondylitis remain a very useful classification criteria set, defining a relatively homogenous group of cases for clinical use and research studies.

Clinical reasoning: The relative contribution of identification, interpretation and hypothesis errors to misdiagnosis

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the types of errors in clinical reasoning that contribute to poor diagnostic performance at different levels of medical training and experience. Three cohorts of subjects, second- and fourth- (final) year medical students and a group of general practitioners, completed a set of clinical reasoning problems. The responses of those whose scores fell below the 25th centile were analysed to establish the stage of the clinical reasoning process - identification of relevant information, interpretation or hypothesis generation - at which most errors occurred and whether this was dependent on problem difficulty and level of medical experience. Results indicate that hypothesis errors decrease as expertise increases but that identification and interpretation errors increase. This may be due to inappropriate use of pattern recognition or to failure of the knowledge base. Furthermore, although hypothesis errors increased in line with problem difficulty, identification and interpretation errors decreased. A possible explanation is that as problem difficulty increases, subjects at all levels of expertise are less able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant clinical features and so give equal consideration to all information contained within a case. It is concluded that the development of clinical reasoning in medical students throughout the course of their pre-clinical and clinical education may be enhanced by both an analysis of the clinical reasoning process and a specific focus on each of the stages at which errors commonly occur.

Metodologia de análise e diagnóstico de fratura em um componente automotivo sujeito a cargas cíclicas alternadas

The competitiveness of the trade generated by the higher availability of products with lower quality and cost promoted a new reality of industrial production with small clearances. Track deviations at the production are not discarded, uncertainties can statistically occur. The world consumer and the Brazilian one are supported by the consumer protection code, in lawsuits against the products poor quality. An automobile is composed of various systems and thousands of constituent parts, increasing the likelihood of failure. The dynamic and security systems are critical in relation to the consequences of possible failures. The investigation of the failure gives us the possibility of learning and contributing to various improvements. Our main purpose in this work is to develop a systematic, specific methodology by investigating the root cause of the flaw occurred on an axle end of the front suspension of an automobile, and to perform comparative data analyses between the fractured part and the project information. Our research was based on a flaw generated in an automotive suspension system involved in a mechanical judicial cause, resulting in property and personal damages. In the investigations concerning the analysis of mechanical flaws, knowledge on materials engineering plays a crucial role in the process, since it enables applying techniques for characterizing materials, relating the technical attributes required from a respective part with its structure of manufacturing material, thus providing a greater scientific contribution to the work. The specific methodology developed follows its own flowchart. In the early phase, the data in the records and information on the involved ones were collected. The following laboratory analyses were performed: macrography of the fracture, micrography with SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) of the initial and final fracture, phase analysis with optical microscopy, Brinell hardness and Vickers microhardness analyses, quantitative and qualitative chemical analysis, by using X-ray fluorescence and optical spectroscopy for carbon analysis, qualitative study on the state of tension was done. Field data were also collected. In the analyses data of the values resulting from the fractured stock parts and the design values were compared. After the investigation, one concluded that: the developed methodology systematized the investigation and enabled crossing data, thus minimizing diagnostic error probability, the morphology of the fracture indicates failure by the fatigue mechanism in a geometrically propitious location, a tension hub, the part was subjected to low tensions by the sectional area of the final fracture, the manufacturing material of the fractured part has low ductility, the component fractured in an earlier moment than the one recommended by the manufacturer, the percentages of C, Si, Mn and Cr of the fractured part present values which differ from the design ones, the hardness value of the superior limit of the fractured part is higher than that of the design, and there is no manufacturing uniformity between stock and fractured part. The work will contribute to optimizing the guidance of the actions in a mechanical engineering judicial expertise

Potentially malignant epithelial oral lesions: Discrepancies between clinical and histological diagnosis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the discrepancy index between the clinical and histological diagnosis and the prevalence of epithelial dysplasia and carcinoma in 45 patients with potentially malignant epithelial oral lesions (PMEL). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We submitted 45 patients with PMEL to clinical examination and obtained a biopsy from each. The results of histological diagnosis were compared to the clinical diagnosis. RESULTS: Clinical diagnosis showed that the most common PMEL was leukoplakia followed by lichen planus and by actinic cheilitis associated with leukoplakia. The most common site was the buccal mucosa. Histological diagnosis revealed that 46.7% of the PMEL were lichen planus. The discrepancy index between clinical and histological diagnosis was 24.4%. The higher discrepancy index occurred among leukoplakias. The prevalence of epithelial dysplasia and carcinoma was 17.8%. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that all PMEL should be submitted to a microscopic analysis because the discrepancy between clinical and histological diagnosis was present in a quarter of these lesions. Otherwise, the epithelial dysplasia and carcinoma were more frequent in the leukoplakias.

Metodologia baseada em sistema fuzzy intervalar do tipo-2 para detecção e identificação de faltas de incipientes em motores de indução

Desde a incorporação da automação no processo produtivo, a busca por sistemas mais eficientes, objetivando o aumento da produtividade e da qualidade dos produtos e serviços, direcionou os estudos para o planejamento de estratégias que permitissem o monitoramento de sistemas com o intuito principal de torna-los mais autônomos e robustos. Por esse motivo, as pesquisas envolvendo o diagnóstico de faltas em sistemas industriais tornaram-se mais intensivas, visto a necessidade da incorporação de técnicas para monitoramente detalhado de sistemas. Tais técnicas permitem a verificação de perturbações, falta ou mesmo falhas. Em vista disso, essa trabalho investiga técnicas de detecção e diagnostico de faltas e sua aplicação em motores de indução trifásicos, delimitando o seu estudo em duas situações: sistemas livre de faltas, e sobre atuação da falta incipiente do tipo curto-circuitoparcial nas espiras do enrolamento do estator. Para a detecção de faltas, utilizou-se analise paramétrica dos parâmetros de um modelo de tempo discreto, de primeira ordem, na estrutura autoregressivo com entradas exógenas (ARX). Os parâmetros do modelo ARX, que trazem informação sobre a dinâmica dominante do sistema, são obtidos recursivamente pela técnica dos mínimos quadrados recursivos (MQR). Para avaliação da falta, foi desenvolvido um sistema de inferência fuzzy (SIF) intervala do tipo-2, cuja mancha de incerteza ou footprint of uncertainty (FOU), características de sistema fuzzy tipo-2, é ideal como forma de representar ruídos inerentes a sistemas reais e erros numéricos provenientes do processo de estimação paramétrica. Os parâmetros do modelo ARX são entradas para o SIF. Algoritmos genéricos (AG’s) foram utilizados para otimização dos SIF intervalares tipo-2, objetivando reduzir o erro de diagnóstico da falta identificada na saída desses sistemas. Os resultados obtidos em teste de simulação computacional demonstram a efetividade da metodologia proposta.

How to prevent overdiagnosis.

Overdiagnosis is the diagnosis of an abnormality that is not associated with a substantial health hazard and that patients have no benefit to be aware of. It is neither a misdiagnosis (diagnostic error), nor a false positive result (positive test in the absence of a real abnormality). It mainly results from screening, use of increasingly sensitive diagnostic tests, incidental findings on routine examinations, and widening diagnostic criteria to define a condition requiring an intervention. The blurring boundaries between risk and disease, physicians' fear of missing a diagnosis and patients' need for reassurance are further causes of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis often implies procedures to confirm or exclude the presence of the condition and is by definition associated with useless treatments and interventions, generating harm and costs without any benefit. Overdiagnosis also diverts healthcare professionals from caring about other health issues. Preventing overdiagnosis requires increasing awareness of healthcare professionals and patients about its occurrence, the avoidance of unnecessary and untargeted diagnostic tests, and the avoidance of screening without demonstrated benefits. Furthermore, accounting systematically for the harms and benefits of screening and diagnostic tests and determining risk factor thresholds based on the expected absolute risk reduction would also help prevent overdiagnosis.

Avaliação e tratamento das alterações do equilíbrio ácido-base

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Revisiting youden’s index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous score for classification of study participants into healthy or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might be confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead, an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden’s index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel–Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden’s index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility of tendency oriented perimetry in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To evaluate the diagnostic capability of tendency oriented perimetry (TOP) in glaucoma. METHODS. A): The diagnostic accuracy of mean defect (MD), square-root of the loss variance (sLV), and number of pathologic points (NPP) was calculated in 295 normal and 414 glaucoma eyes (179 early, 112 moderate, and 123 advanced) examined with TOP. B): Threshold fluctuation (F) and its relationship with the loss variance (LV) was measured in 34 normal and 33 glaucoma eyes (mean MD=3 dB; SD=3.9) for TOP and for full-threshold perimetry (FT). C): Twenty-eight eyes with stable glaucoma (mean MD=9.5 dB; SD=7.2) were examined six times to quantify LV error. D): TOP and FT were tested with the simulation program PeriSim using different behavior models. RESULTS. A): The best diagnostic index in early glaucoma (MD

Rapid detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection in critical care using multipathogen real-time polymerase chain reaction technology: a diagnostic accuracy study and systematic review

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. 

Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. 

Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. 

Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. 

Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. 

Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. 

Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. 

Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.